【中商原版】信号与噪声 罗辑思维书单 英文原版 The Signal and the Noise-so88
【中商原版】信号与噪声 罗辑思维书单 英文原版 The Signal and the Noise pdf epub mobi txt 电子书 下载 2022
图书介绍
☆☆☆☆☆
||
店铺: 中华商务进口图书旗舰店 出版社: Penguin Books ISBN:9780143125082 商品编码:1671984414
The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don't讯号与干扰——准确预测的关键
基本信息
作者:Nate Silver
出版社: Penguin Books (2015年2月3日)
平装: 560页
语种: 英语
ISBN: 0143125087
条形码: 9780143125082
商品尺寸: 13.9 x 2.9 x 21.4 cm
内容简介
"Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century." —Rachel Maddow, author of Drift
Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com.
Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.
In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science.
作者简介
Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com.
【中商原版】信号与噪声 罗辑思维书单 英文原版 The Signal and the Noise 电子书 下载 mobi epub pdf txt
电子书下载地址:
相关电子书推荐:
- 文件名
- 核医学学习指导及习题集(八年制配教)
- 校园足球手册
- (青少年“海洋梦”系列丛书)蓝色“妖姬”——海洋植物 “海洋梦”系列丛书编委会
- 无法理解的世界:五洲探秘 徐滔, 杜军
- 正版 科技未来
- 受欢迎的全民健身项目指导用书-跆拳道 9787547222324
- “人与地球的明天”科普书系 大地之美:千姿百态的地貌 北京出版集团公司,北京出版社
- 游泳突破 提速秘诀
- 蝴蝶-第一次发现丛书
- 民国大师美文录:珍藏经典代表作 精装 第一辑(套装共9册)
- 海南 白沙黎族自治县概况——中国少数民族自治地方概况丛书 9787105086764
- 江湖残局图谱(一)
- 正版 十万个为什么:新版(全四册)(无盒) 9787553428116 常士杰 吉林出版集
- 中国体育博士文丛:我国射箭项目特点及制胜规律研究
- 坎特伯雷朝圣途中的趣题 亨利·杜德尼,陈以鸿